Spring is always the busiest time in real estate. In Calgary, that generally means April, May, and June, with the peak usually occurring in May—although sometimes it happens in June, and occasionally in April.

In 2022, the market peaked in March, which was a significant anomaly that might occur once every 20 years. However, it helps illustrate the main point of this article: early-spring buyers are different from late-spring buyers.

So what caused the market to peak so early in 2022?

Let’s start by looking at the absorption rate in the months leading up to March. Remember, the absorption rate is simply the total number of sales during a month divided by the remaining inventory on the last day of that month. I define a balanced market as an absorption rate of 33%. For example, if there were 500 sales in a month and 1,500 listings remaining at month-end, that would be a 33% absorption rate—a balanced market, meaning neither a seller’s market nor a buyer’s market.

Here are the absorption rates and total sales for detached homes during the six months leading up to and including March 2022:

Month Absorption Rate Total Sales

October 2021 64.5% 1,331

November 2021 81.6% 1,245

December 2021 111.5% 1,006

January 2022 127.8% 1,146

February 2022 112.2% 1,896

March 2022 102.9% 2,267

Those absorption-rate numbers are borderline insane, especially the rapidly rising rates in the final months of 2021. It was the clearest signal I’ve ever seen that a crazy spring market was coming.

These are the types of market conditions that make it obvious to everyone that prices are about to take off. You didn’t need to see the numbers to know what was happening. Your neighbour listed their house and it sold the next day. Another home hit the market and received multiple offers. You could actually feel the market going into overdrive.

After March, sales began to decline, although they remained very strong for the rest of the year. But what caused that unusually early spring rush?

The answer was momentum.

As the market accelerated, more and more buyers became convinced that they needed to act immediately before prices rise beyond their reach. In other words, a lot of buyers purchased earlier in the year than they otherwise would have.

So what does all of this have to do with a normal spring market, where activity typically peaks in May?

Quite a bit, actually.

March 2022 was simply an extreme example of a trend that exists every year. Some buyers feel the heat of the market more than others. If we divide buyers into April buyers, May buyers, and June buyers, the April buyers tend to feel a greater sense of urgency. Whether that’s because they’re worried about rising prices, they’re naturally quicker decision-makers, or they’re simply more motivated doesn’t really matter.

The point is that they act sooner.

June buyers, on the other hand, either don’t feel that same urgency or are simply more patient. They’re often willing to wait longer for a property that checks all the boxes.

So how does this affect you as a seller?

Simply understand that the market in June is not the same as the market in April.

Think of it this way: many of the June buyers were already looking in April and May. They just weren’t as quick on the draw as the April buyers. The remaining buyers are simply slower on the draw and probably pickier.

April buyers are hares and June buyers are turtles. But even the turtles get to the finish line eventually!

The key is recognizing that a slower market doesn’t necessarily mean a weaker market. By June, many of the most urgent buyers have already purchased, leaving behind a different type of buyer. They’re still out there—you just need to give them a good reason to choose your home over your competitors.